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Thursday, January 4, 2024

The brain may be filled with gray matter, but it hates gray areas. And there are few other places we find gray areas (uncertainty) than in the economies and markets of the world. One word of caution: our innate desire for certainty...

Friday, September 1, 2023

Timing the Market Why is it that many investors feel the urge to time the stock market? Since 1950, the S&P 500 stock index has been in a bull market 83% of the time – despite all the crises and corrections.1 You would think...

Monday, August 14, 2023

Just because you are paying the bill don’t assume medical professionals or university staff will discuss what is deemed to be personal information, about your adult child. In the eyes of the law, your child is an adult now and...

Wednesday, August 2, 2023

Time is an interesting dimension. It is a fixed measurement, yet our perception of time varies greatly depending on what we are doing. It has been said that the longest eight seconds in life is riding a bull. Full disclosure… My...

Monday, July 3, 2023

The Advantages of Tempering ExpectationsWe all want desirable outcomes – those outcomes that bring us happiness, peace, and prosperity. Because we desire such outcomes, we may go into situations having high expectations. But it...

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Monday, June 5, 2023

Investing may be simple in principle, but it isn’t easy in practice. Markets and economies are fraught with uncertainty, constantly changing news and markets, and how great some other investment is performing. Warren Buffett is...

Wednesday, May 3, 2023

Since early last year economists, market experts, and even corporate CEOs were predicting a recession for this year. Most of them said it would happen early in the year.1 A recession was the consensus view among experts, almost a...

Monday, April 3, 2023

Many investors today unknowingly act like speculators. How do I know this? Because they are more concerned and influenced by short-term stochastic changes in stock prices than in the underlying fundamentals of a company. And when...

Monday, March 6, 2023

We are generally in the pursuit of more. More income, more recognition, more opportunities, more happiness etc.… Because “more” often results in desirable outcomes, it is natural to think in terms of what we can get...

Monday, February 6, 2023

As New Year’s Day is now in the rearview mirror, we can surmise that people are struggling to keep their resolutions. Indeed some may have already given up, perhaps with a determination that next year will be the year. A...

Thursday, January 5, 2023

Unlike mainstream market and economic forecasts, my forecast is reliable and robust because it is based on enduring investment truths and investor behavior.

Wednesday, October 5, 2022

Last year we were told that inflation was transitory. This year we learn that it is more persistent. And now investors have entered a bear market. Investors may be wondering how transitory or persistent this bear market may be. I wish...

Monday, September 19, 2022

A favorite (and costly) pastime of investors is to invest in assets that have recently done well. This happens in good times as investors seek better returns, and they happen in bad times as low-yielding investments such as cash are...

Thursday, June 30, 2022

McGarraugh Farms finished another harvest last week which marks the 101'st wheat harvest for the family farm. Finishing up in the middle of June is rarely a good thing, the great crops usually have us in the...

Friday, June 3, 2022

Memorial Day is a time of remembering, reflecting, and honoring those who gave the ultimate sacrifice for the freedoms we enjoy today. The act of remembering often brings feelings of gratitude, love, and a desire to do good to others....

Thursday, May 19, 2022

The ability to think clearly and draw correct conclusions is necessary in everyday life, especially when it comes to making important decisions. But thinking critically is not natural; it’s not the way our brains are hardwired.

Thursday, April 28, 2022

Friday, March 25, 2022

Our future, by definition, is uncertain. There are times when the future is perceived as less uncertain (the sun will rise tomorrow), but there are seldom if ever, guarantees of future outcomes.

Tuesday, February 8, 2022

Wednesday, November 24, 2021

Tis the season of gratitude. Thanksgiving is perhaps one of the most underappreciated holidays, but most needed. Given the year we have endured it may be difficult to be naturally thankful. This year may require us to purposefully and...

Friday, November 5, 2021

It’s been said that delegation is a mark of wisdom. Do you delegate the things that others can do so you can focus on the things only you can do? We can choose to delegate activities out of convenience like mowing the lawn or...

Tuesday, September 14, 2021

Creating a Virtuous Cycle There are many concerns today that can significantly affect our thoughts, actions, and quality of life. Fires out west. A devastating hurricane in the south. Afghanistan. COVID. The list could go on and on....

Monday, August 2, 2021

The Virtue of Slowing Down Time is an interesting dimension. It is a fixed measurement, yet our perception of time varies greatly depending on what we are doing. It has been said that the longest eight seconds in life is riding a bull....

Friday, June 18, 2021

Recently we have been seeing a lot of headlines about how expensive the market is and predictions that it is about to fall significantly. This is also coupled with many mentions of rising inflation. Such headlines filled with dire...

Friday, May 28, 2021

I think every family can point to a past “investment” that was really a speculation. I recently had a phone call with my 102-year-old grandma Elmyra. She told me a story about Grandpa Earl almost losing the farm sometime in...

Tuesday, May 4, 2021

These days it seems there is so much to worry about. The media is replete with news of political frustrations, civil unrest and the global pandemic. Financially, there are concerns about inflation, taxes and deficits. Life, with all...

Wednesday, April 21, 2021

We are four months into 2021 and there is a good chance that half of all the New Year’s resolutions have already failed. A long-term study by the University of Scranton found that less than 10% of resolutions become part of our...

Wednesday, March 24, 2021

Humility or I should say the lack of humility, is a quality that is easy to identify in others, yet difficult to see in ourselves. Humility is a difficult quality to develop because it may threaten our sensitive egos. Ego is important;...

Friday, March 5, 2021

The Lure of Envy The color green is attributed to many positive things in life. Green is often used as a symbol of prosperity and even represents life itself. But not all green is good. Being green with envy is a characteristic we...

Friday, January 29, 2021

The Cost of Investor Behavior Investors often respond emotionally to the market. And whether that emotion is fear of loss or fear of missing out, it is powerful. We are inclined to sell something that goes down and buy whatever is...

Thursday, December 31, 2020

A Persistent Forecast for 2021 Persistent (def) - continuing to exist or endure over a prolonged period Wall Street forecasts lack persistence. Their shelf life may only be a few weeks or months at best. 2020 was a great example; once...

Tuesday, December 15, 2020

The next twelve months may be an especially interesting time. There is hope, but there is still much unknown. Let’s mind travel to December 2021. Next year at this time, we may look back and say, “Of course, how did I miss...

Sunday, November 1, 2020

Tis the season of gratitude. Thanksgiving is perhaps one of the most underappreciated holidays, but most needed. Given the year we have endured it may be difficult to be naturally thankful. This year may require us to purposefully and...

Thursday, October 1, 2020

The brain has a lot of gray matter but hates gray areas. As a planning machine, the brain needs information that is certain so it can figure out the best course of action. And when we don’t get certain information, we get...

Tuesday, September 1, 2020

My exposure to the art of financial planning goes back to 1958 in the Texas Panhandle. Although I recently celebrated my 43rd birthday, I belong to the 4th generation of my family to have called Perryton, Texas as its home. My...