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The Only Forecast That Matters
Unlike mainstream market and economic forecasts, my forecast is reliable and robust because it is based on enduring investment truths and investor behavior.
Read MoreEverything is Transitory
Last year we were told that inflation was transitory. This year we learn that it is more persistent. And now investors have entered a bear market. Investors may be wondering how transitory or persistent this bear market may be. I wish...
Read MoreChasing Returns
A favorite (and costly) pastime of investors is to invest in assets that have recently done well. This happens in good times as investors seek better returns, and they happen in bad times as low-yielding investments such as cash are...
Read MoreTrusting Your Investment Decisions
McGarraugh Farms finished another harvest last week which marks the 101'st wheat harvest for the family farm. Finishing up in the middle of June is rarely a good thing, the great crops usually have us in the...
Read MoreThe Power of Remembering
Memorial Day is a time of remembering, reflecting, and honoring those who gave the ultimate sacrifice for the freedoms we enjoy today. The act of remembering often brings feelings of gratitude, love, and a desire to do good to others....
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Some Thoughts on Thinking
The ability to think clearly and draw correct conclusions is necessary in everyday life, especially when it comes to making important decisions. But thinking critically is not natural; it’s not the way our brains are hardwired.
Read MorePlanning Amid Uncertainty
Our future, by definition, is uncertain. There are times when the future is perceived as less uncertain (the sun will rise tomorrow), but there are seldom if ever, guarantees of future outcomes.
Read MoreIntentional Gratitude
Tis the season of gratitude. Thanksgiving is perhaps one of the most underappreciated holidays, but most needed. Given the year we have endured it may be difficult to be naturally thankful. This year may require us to purposefully and...
Read MoreThe Wisdom of Delegating
It’s been said that delegation is a mark of wisdom. Do you delegate the things that others can do so you can focus on the things only you can do? We can choose to delegate activities out of convenience like mowing the lawn or...
Read MoreCreating a Virtuous Cycle
Creating a Virtuous Cycle There are many concerns today that can significantly affect our thoughts, actions, and quality of life. Fires out west. A devastating hurricane in the south. Afghanistan. COVID. The list could go on and on....
Read MoreYour Adult Child Needs These Legal Documents Before Starting College
Just because you are paying the bill don’t assume medical professionals or university staff will discuss what is deemed to be personal information, about your adult child. In the eyes of the law, your child is an adult now and...
Read MoreThe Virtue of Slowing Down
The Virtue of Slowing Down Time is an interesting dimension. It is a fixed measurement, yet our perception of time varies greatly depending on what we are doing. It has been said that the longest eight seconds in life is riding a bull....
Read MoreMindful Decision Making
Recently we have been seeing a lot of headlines about how expensive the market is and predictions that it is about to fall significantly. This is also coupled with many mentions of rising inflation. Such headlines filled with dire...
Read MoreSpeculating and Investing
I think every family can point to a past “investment” that was really a speculation. I recently had a phone call with my 102-year-old grandma Elmyra. She told me a story about Grandpa Earl almost losing the farm sometime in...
Read MoreDon’t Worry, Be Happy
These days it seems there is so much to worry about. The media is replete with news of political frustrations, civil unrest and the global pandemic. Financially, there are concerns about inflation, taxes and deficits. Life, with all...
Read MoreResolutions and Habits
We are four months into 2021 and there is a good chance that half of all the New Year’s resolutions have already failed. A long-term study by the University of Scranton found that less than 10% of resolutions become part of our...
Read MoreIntellectual Humility
Humility or I should say the lack of humility, is a quality that is easy to identify in others, yet difficult to see in ourselves. Humility is a difficult quality to develop because it may threaten our sensitive egos. Ego is important;...
Read MoreThe Lure of Envy
The Lure of Envy The color green is attributed to many positive things in life. Green is often used as a symbol of prosperity and even represents life itself. But not all green is good. Being green with envy is a characteristic we...
Read MoreThe Cost of Investor Behavior
The Cost of Investor Behavior Investors often respond emotionally to the market. And whether that emotion is fear of loss or fear of missing out, it is powerful. We are inclined to sell something that goes down and buy whatever is...
Read MoreA Persistent Forecast for 2021
A Persistent Forecast for 2021 Persistent (def) - continuing to exist or endure over a prolonged period Wall Street forecasts lack persistence. Their shelf life may only be a few weeks or months at best. 2020 was a great example; once...
Read MoreProspective Hindsight
The next twelve months may be an especially interesting time. There is hope, but there is still much unknown. Let’s mind travel to December 2021. Next year at this time, we may look back and say, “Of course, how did I miss...
Read MoreIntentional Gratitude
Tis the season of gratitude. Thanksgiving is perhaps one of the most underappreciated holidays, but most needed. Given the year we have endured it may be difficult to be naturally thankful. This year may require us to purposefully and...
Read MoreUncertainty, Outcomes & Our Decisions
The brain has a lot of gray matter but hates gray areas. As a planning machine, the brain needs information that is certain so it can figure out the best course of action. And when we don’t get certain information, we get...
Read MoreWhat Constitutes the Art of Financial Planning: A Personal View
My exposure to the art of financial planning goes back to 1958 in the Texas Panhandle. Although I recently celebrated my 43rd birthday, I belong to the 4th generation of my family to have called Perryton, Texas as its home. My...
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